In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?”
The map below shows the median expected price change of the respondents in the next 12 months at the state level for surveys conducted in October—December 2017. REALTOR® respondents from Washington and Nevada had the highest median expected price growth of more than five to seven percent. In Colorado and Florida, the median expected price growth was four to five percent. Worth noting is that even in states with high property tax rates or property prices, such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and California—states which are the most affected by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that put a cap on total itemized deductions property and state and local taxes — respondents expect either no change or a modest price appreciation of at most two percent.
With the median home price of existing homes at $246,800 in December 2017 (cumulative change of 60 percent since January 2012), and with fewer inventory of homes for sale at their lowest level since January 1999 (3.2 months’ supply), REALTORS® expect prices to continue to appreciate in the next 12 months. In many metro areas, listing prices are up by double-digit rates, as the number of homes listed for sale have also fallen steeply.